According to a recent report (2020 Trustees Report) actuaries examined the impact of the pandemic and recession on Social Security using most recent data. As for the impact, “significant” is the best word to describe it.

The report shows that:

⦁ Mortality is up,
⦁ fertility and immigration are down,
⦁ unemployment is up,
⦁ real wages are mixed,
⦁ and real interest rates are down.

Obviously the pandemic has shaken things up.

But the impact on Social Security finances appears to be modest. Most of the pandemic/recession effects are projected to end by 2025, and the effects on the long-term deficit and on the depletion of the trust fund are negligible.